BNTX/MRNA/INCY/UTHR/JAZZ/ASND/BMRN/IONS/ALKS Thoughts Into 2Q

Research evidence excerpt

BNTX/MRNA/INCY/UTHR/JAZZ/ASND/BMRN/IONS/ALKS Thoughts Into 2Q

ra, we model revs of $420mm which includes ~

$174mm of underlying sales and $246mm related to a 1x non-cash reversal of accruals

associated with the resolution of a dispute with CMS (per the June 22nd 8-K). We think the

$257mm cons Opzelura figure is hard to compare to because we believe it reflects a mix of

estimates which do and do not include the non-cash component. INCY has also said they

expect an improvement to Opzelura’s GTN going forward and we will watch for the potential

magnitude of this benefit and upside to guidance that could result. More broadly on INCY,

we are intrigued by the company’s pipeline and see management taking the right steps to

position it to navigate Jakafi’s LOE, however given that we expect INCY will have to go

through the “valley,” we want to see more data from products like ‘989 to better predict what

the company will look like coming out the other side before becoming more constructive.

• On the call we will listen for: 1) Updated commercial expectations for key products:

Jakafi XR, Opzelura, Niktimvo, etc, 2) how mgmt frames pipeline updates for the

remainder of the year and development plans for key assets, especially ‘989 and the

KRAS G12D product, 3) additional commentary on VGA039 and how mgmt frames

phase III POS; 4) incremental color around the ‘989 ENHANZE deal, and 5) how much

additional BD capacity INCY has.

UTHR (Aug 5)

We model 2Q revs of $811mm (company-compiled cons $810mm) and $486mm (+3%

YOY) for closely-watched Tyvaso which is inline with company-compiled cons. We had

previously been slightly higher at $495mm for Tyvaso this qtr, but without good third-party

data we trimmed our est out of conservatism. Our full-year Tyvaso est is unchanged. Our