APAC Credit Roundup: EM Corporates, EM Credit Indices, Pakistan, Axis Bank, Macau gaming, Mongolian Mining

Research evidence excerpt

APAC Credit Roundup: EM Corporates, EM Credit Indices, Pakistan, Axis Bank, Macau gaming, Mongolian Mining

ed the upgrade to improved

institutional stability, which has supported the implementation of critical reforms under the IMF

program and helped advance fiscal consolidation. It also noted that multilateral and bilateral

support has boosted reserves, while Pakistan returned to international capital markets this year

(see our note). Pakistan’s performance under the ongoing IMF program has been broadly

satisfactory, as noted by our Economic Research team (see our note), and progress on

macroeconomic rebalancing has allowed the country to achieve a fiscal primary surplus for the

third consecutive year in FY2025/26. Government debt has fallen from 75.2% of GDP at end-

FY2021/22 to less than 68% of GDP at end- FY2025/26, while gross foreign-currency reserves

excluding gold and FX deposits by domestic banks have increased from US$10bn to US$18.5bn

over the same period. Near-term financing risks are manageable, but vulnerability to adverse

external developments, including higher oil prices, remains significant. Public-sector debt

maturities are projected to rise significantly in FY2026/27, which the government is seeking to

address by leveraging its enhanced geopolitical profile to mobilize greater official creditor

support, and by diversifying international market financing (see our note). (Mahmoud)

Axis Bank - Fine quarter but focus is on sector supply

First quarter results for financial year 2027 were fine for Axis Bank, but credit markets remain

focused on the supply outlook for India financials. We initiate with an Overweight on the new

AT1 (6.5% YTC), but initiate with a Neutral recommendation on the senior bond (z+124bp),