The Point for Europe

Research evidence excerpt

The Point for Europe

Point |

Thursday, 23 July 2026

Top Call | Company | Industry | Strategy & Economics | Fixed Income & FX | Key Rating and Target Price

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Top Call Must Read

European Construction Materials - Debates into 2Q results – heavyside building Global Economic Outlook & Strategy -

materials The Resilient Global Economy—

Old fashioned earnings momentum has been the key driver of relative stock price Cascading Supply Shocks

performance in the heavyside building materials so far this year – with Holcim and

Titan outperforming YTD. However the price performance in the last month into

the results suggest to us that the ‘hurdle to beat’ is lowest in Heidelberg and could

reignite momentum in the stock. The price-cost spread outlook will be the key

factor discussed on the call (given expectations on volume recovery has already

been kicked into ’27) and we expect commentary that 2H will be better than 1H

given price hikes pushed through (including energy surcharges) and input cost

inflation starting to slow. The valuation differential within the sector is at multi-

decade high and in particular the HOLN-HEI valuation spread of 4 turns on EBITDA

and 35% premium should narrow over the next few quarters

Ephrem Ravi | Omnath Sinh

Neste (NESTE.HE) - Equity Discounting Peak Margins through 2030;

Transferring Coverage

We continue to view Sum-of-the-Parts as the most appropriate valuation

methodology and believe the current share price implies: (1) a valuation materially

above underlying replacement-cost economics and (2) the equity is discounting a

Renewable Products (RP) margin materially above Visible Alpha (VA) consensus

2027-30E. We expect margins to moderate from current highs but anticipate a

refining environment slightly more supportive than pre-Russia-Ukraine.