Texas Instruments: Cyclical Momentum/Oversized DC Growth Again Drive Strong Results/Guidance; Growth Upside from Pricing Gains and Inventory Replenishment Still on the Come; Reit OW

Research evidence excerpt

Texas Instruments: Cyclical Momentum/Oversized DC Growth Again Drive Strong Results/Guidance; Growth Upside from Pricing Gains and Inventory Replenishment Still on the Come; Reit OW

brid demand), which we think will begin to trigger

inventory restocking (an additional growth lever that remains ahead) given Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

customer inventory levels have reached unsustainably low levels. TI’s book-to-bill Adj. EPS ($)

was >1 and backlog grew in Q2, while lead times are now beginning to extend - all 2025A 2026E 2027E

positive indicators of continued cycle strength. Notably, TI’s share of overall Q1 1.41 1.79A 2.52

Q2 1.53 2.26A 2.79

industry analog revenue again increased in Q2, improving to an estimated 18.7% Q3 1.56 2.53 3.12

(JPMe) from 17.2% in the prior quarter - still shy of TI’s peak ~20% share, but well Q4 1.35 2.53 2.99

off its ~15% low (20% share would imply an incremental ~$1.2B of annualized FY 5.86 9.11 11.42

revenue for TI at current industry revenue levels - i.e. assuming no growth). Gross

Style Exposure

margin saw a ~340bp step-up in Q2, and should tick higher again Q3 on moderately

higher fab loadings and volume growth. Looking ahead, pricing remains a key

upside lever to TI’s growth story beginning in 4Q26 and into CY27 - pricing was

relatively flat in 1H26 (better than usual LSD% Y/Y declines), and mgmt has begun

to roll out price increases to customers across both its Analog and Embedded

businesses, which should contribute at least a few ppts to top-line growth next year.

We are increasing our forward estimates and are establishing a Dec-27 price target

of $340 (versus our prior Dec-26 target of $280), which is based on a 28-30x (29x)

P/E multiple, times $11.80 of 2H27 annualized earnings power. We reiterate our

OW rating on TXN.