CSX: This Isn‘t The Service Issue You Are Looking For

Research evidence excerpt

CSX: This Isn‘t The Service Issue You Are Looking For

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

22 July 2026

CSX Overweight

CSX, CSX US

This Isn’t The Service Issue You Are Looking For Price (22 Jul 26):$49.93

▲Price Target (Dec-27):$58.00

Prior (Dec-26):$56.00

CSX proved why sentiment was skewed positive heading into the print with

another operating beat and raise, despite service metrics which continued to slip Airfreight & Surface Transportation /

Shippingthroughout the quarter (recap here). We expect the stock outperforms on these

results as estimates move higher and reflect the outlook to beat normal margin Brian P. Ossenbeck, CFA AC

degredation in 3Q26. Core yield (ex-fuel) trends and commentary likely came in (1-212) 622-1023

brian.p.ossenbeck@jpmorgan.com

below the more bullish view for a strong acceleration in 2H26 given that rail pricing

just doesn’t move as much or as fast as the contract truckload market. The expected Grady Carr

(1-212) 622-1251

pace of core yield growth through the remainder of the year will likely need to come grady.carr@jpmchase.com

down further, but we believe this can be mostly offset by stronger than anticipated

Brandon Wexler

renewals in 2027 (similar to JBHT). We did not believe CSX was on the verge of (1-212) 622-1956

a significant operating issue, but are nontheless encouraged by the 2Q26 results brandon.wexler@jpmchase.com

and remain OW as we roll out our Dec 2027 price target and 2028 estimates. J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

• Guidance raised again on stronger volume and productivity. Management

lifted FY26 expectations following a record 2Q26, raising the revenue growth Key Changes (FYE Dec)

outlook to mid-to-high single digits (from MSDs previously) and increasing Prev Cur Δ