Goosehead: 2Q26 First Take: Higher Contingents Drove Beat, Core Results Missed

Research evidence excerpt

Goosehead: 2Q26 First Take: Higher Contingents Drove Beat, Core Results Missed

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

22 July 2026

Goosehead Neutral

GSHD, GSHD US

2Q26 First Take: Higher Contingents Drove Beat, Core Price (22 Jul 26):$51.40

Results Missed

Insurance - Life & Nonlife

Results lifted by contingent commissions, core results weaker. Core revenue Pablo S. Singzon AC

growth was in-line, but higher expenses led to a miss on EBITDA margins ex. (1-212) 622-2295

contingents. Management raised the low-end of its 2026 guidance for organic pablo.s.singzon@jpmorgan.com

revenues from 10-19% to 12-19% (no change to 2026 guidance of 12-20% written Kevin Wijendra

premium growth), largely reflecting an uplift from contingents. We expect 2H26 (1-212) 622-7054

to be marked by improving core revenue growth, more than offset by weaker kevin.wijendra@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

margins ex. contingents (due to accelerating G&A). However, the dollar impact of

these trends could potentially be fully offset by higher contingents.

2Q26 Results

• Headline earnings boosted by contingents, core margins weaker. Adjusted

EBITDA of $38 million (with $16 million of contingents) came in above our Adjusted EPS: $0.64A vs. $0.50E

$30 million estimate (contingents of $5 million) and consensus of $29 million Adj. EBITDA: $37.9 mil. vs. $30.1 mil.E

(contingents of $5 million). On a reported basis, EBITDA margins were 33.5% Core rev. growth: 10.2% vs. 10.4%E

compared to our 29.3% estimate and consensus of 27.9%. Excluding Revenue growth: 20.6% vs. 9.4%E

contingents, adjusted EBITDA was $22 million, below our $26 million

Adj. EBITDA margins: 33.5% vs. 29.3%E estimate and consensus of $24 million (contingents are a core part of GSHD’s