Ineos Group Holdings SA: Strait and narrow

Research evidence excerpt

Ineos Group Holdings SA: Strait and narrow

J P M O R G A N Europe Credit Research

22 July 2026

Underweight

Ineos Group Holdings SA INEGRP

Strait and narrow

Europe Corporate Credit - Basic

Materials and Industrials

Guillaume Jouandin AC

(44-20) 7134-1538

guillaume.jouandin@jpmorgan.com

Benjamin Defay AC

The Middle East conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz gave INEOS a shot (33-1) 4015 5047

in the arm, with earnings, cash flow and liquidity all improving materially thanks to ben.defay@jpmorgan.com

a surge in petrochemical prices, and IGH used this opportunity to refinance its near- Samuel Gosling

term maturities early. While the geopolitical backdrop remains highly volatile, we do (44-20) 7134-0456

not view this situation as a structural change to the market. Chemical spot prices have samuel.gosling@jpmorgan.com

already fallen substantially from recent highs, which points to lower contract prices J.P. Morgan Securities plc

in the coming months. As a result, we believe the company will continue to generate

negative free cash flow in 2026 and around breakeven in 2027. With earnings likely

to normalise in 2027 following an exceptionally strong 2026, we expect JPM net Credit Ratings

leverage to stand at an elevated 6.8x at year-end 2027, with our bear case assuming S&P

8.0x (vs. 5.4x at year-end 2026). Following the recent rally in the entire capital Issuer Rating B+

structure, we believe the credit offers limited compensation for its risk profile on the Outlook Negative

long end (B+/B2 2031 at ~520-550bps). We remain UW on the credit; following a Moody's

period of restriction on the name, we initiate on the 2030 and 2031 notes at Issuer Rating B2

Underweight, but move to Neutral on the 2028 (from UW) and initiate on the 2029

Outlook Negative

notes at Neutral.