Randstad: 2Q26 slightly ahead, organic accelerating, gross margins remain soft

Research evidence excerpt

Randstad: 2Q26 slightly ahead, organic accelerating, gross margins remain soft

Jane L Sparrow AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 3493-7101 22 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

jane.sparrow@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Randstad (Neutral; Price Target: €37.00)

Investment Thesis

Randstad is one of the most cyclical companies we cover, with employment services

typically early cycle and 2-3x levered to GDP, with a further c.2x operating leverage.

Randstad proved better prepared for post-COVID recovery than peers, investing earlier and

reaping the benefits. However, the global staffing industry continues to struggle with macro

headwinds, with both temporary and permanent staffing volumes showing sustained

weakness across key regions. Leading economic indicators such as PMIs also highlight a

persistent contraction in activity, reinforcing a weak outlook on volumes. That said, we note

that some data in the US is showing mixed signs of improvement and we see Randstad in

a relatively stronger position to capitalise on potential market recoveries. In addition, with

leverage likely falling below 1.0x in the coming periods, we also see room for Randstad to

return excess cash to shareholders.

Valuation

Our Dec-26 price target is based on a 0.3x forward EV/sales multiple (broadly in line with

the multiple we apply to the industry), applied to LTM Dec-26 sales.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Upside risks include: less-than-expected GDP reduction in key markets, e.g. Netherlands

and the US; market share gains; benefits from customer mix; upside surprise on margin

performance; upside surprise from value-add acquisitions.

Downside risks include: further deterioration in the macro-economic data; market share

losses.