INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

Research evidence excerpt

INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

JULY 22, 2026

20 SECONDS:

• Tech bounce sustained yesterday, supporting global MOMO. Gains helped by reports that TSMC

will hike prices by up to 10% in 2027. Tech rally fading in APAC this morn with NDX futures in the red.

EU futures resilient to gepol noise.

• GOOGL earnings: our Tech spec writes GOOGL needs to reassert itself atop the AI lab pecking

order. Buyside bars for capex are very elevated ( $325-350bn vs street $250bn), so watch for this.

• US Banks have been key reporting sector so far (strong trading & IB fee performance; positive on IB

pipeline; geopol tensions supporting activity levels). Research sees potential for re-rating and

positive consensus EPS revisions amongst European IBs.

• Geopol tensions continue to escalate – Red Sea a key supply risk – Saudi crude flow from Red

Sea had hit a record before Houthi warning. The war has reportedly cost the US $37.5bn, which helps

contain the risk of a material kinetic escalation.

• EU Macro MOMO still strong – ZEW German econ sentiment saw biggest rise in over a year in July,

and ECB’s 2Q Bank Lending Survey suggests corporate credit conditions more resilient to conflict

drag than initially feared. Key risk is sustained pressure in energy markets, with EU widely

considered as the ‘escalation underperformer’. ECB expected to stay on hold tomo but could lean

hawkish (our economists expect Sept hike) given move in energy prices.

• UK CPI printed soft at 2.6% YoY (vs 2.8% prior, 2.7% exp), supported by cheaper petrol. Respite

likely to be short lived, with energy price caps having risen 13% in July.

• Protectionism: Tariffs back in focus with S122 expiring on Fri. Series of fresh tariffs announced so

far for Canada and Brazil.