Santander - First Glance; Global Investment Banks; OTP Thoughts; Baer EPS upgrades

Research evidence excerpt

Santander - First Glance; Global Investment Banks; OTP Thoughts; Baer EPS upgrades

Gigi Sparling - Specialist Sales - European Financials AC (44-20) 7134-0355 Europe Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

ghislaine.sparling@jpmorgan.com JPM | EU Financials: Santander -

J.P. Morgan Securities plc First Glance; Global Investment

Banks; OTP Thoughts; Baer EPS

upgrades

22 July 2026

particular UBS followed by Barclays and DBK, and to a lesser extent the French banks, to also benefit from the IB strength but to

a lesser degree than their US peers. We are also 5% above company consensus PBT on Barclays going into 2Q results. We

reconfirm our positive view on IBs highlighted in our 2026 Outlook despite the 2H expected revenue slowdown, as we see

ongoing uncertainty remaining supportive of trading revenues, while the uncertainty so far has not derailed the IB pipeline, which,

on execution, should continue to have a multiplier effect on the secondary revenues as well, as the team highlighted in their recent

IB tracker. Link to note here.

OTP Bank - Luminor acquisition opens new frontier. Call with Mehmet tomorrow. OTP’s acquisition of Luminor is a net

positive, in Mehmet’s view, unlocking capital for EPS accretion in a new geography while preserving significant CET1 buffers.

Financial terms have not been disclosed, but assuming a purchase price of 1.0x TBV, we calculate 2.6% FY27E EPS accretion,

45bp ROTE expansion, and a 5% ROI. This is broadly in line with net buyback returns at the current share price; in any case,

sizeable buybacks were never really an option, and with Central Asia expansion looking increasingly unlikely of late, we view

this as a positive development for constructive use of capital. The transaction comes at a 1.7%-pt CET1 cost (JPM calc.), bringing