Naturgy: Robust underlying and a one-off drive guidance upgrade above expectations - H1 26 first take

Research evidence excerpt

Naturgy: Robust underlying and a one-off drive guidance upgrade above expectations - H1 26 first take

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

22 July 2026

Naturgy Overweight

NTGY.MC, NTGY SM

Robust underlying and a one-off drive guidance Price (21 Jul 26):€28.50

upgrade above expectations - H1 26 first take Price Target (Dec-27):€30.50

Our Take: We expect the shares to react small positive to a guidance upgrade that European Utilities & Clean Energy

ACis above current Bloomberg consensus, although it is partially due to a €74m one- Javier Garrido

off booked in H1. Underlying trends in networks were robust in H1 and the outlook (34-91) 516-1557

for H2 in liberalised businesses is stronger than expected at the start of the year. javier.x.garrido@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

• Noteworthy Areas: H1 2026 EBITDA of €2,975m is up 4.5% yoy and 3.2%

above JPME. Excluding a €74m one-off in Spanish power distribution, Specialist Sales contact details:

EBITDA would be a 0.6% beat vs JPME, with networks beating our Ian Mitchell - Specialist Sales -

expectations in all business areas (particularly in LatAm, where we are pleased European Energy

(44-20) 7134-1356

to see incremental signals of cost control). On the other hand, the liberalised ian.e.mitchell@jpmorgan.com

businesses were below our expectations, due to lower gross margins. Energy

management underperformed vs JPME, but this was almost fully offset by a

beat in thermal, which means the integrated margins in gas to power were

largely in line with our estimates. Therefore, the miss was due to renewables

(we expected a bigger benefit from the suspension of the generation tax in

Spain) and supply (where the cost of ancillary services has hit earnings above

our expectations).