EM FX Daily Report - 22nd July 2026. Wed Jul 22 2026

Research evidence excerpt

EM FX Daily Report - 22nd July 2026. Wed Jul 22 2026

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A N

laoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com EM FX Daily Report - 22nd July

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 2026

22 July 2026

PLN Dovish NBP/Glapinski comments about a potential cut in 2026 as well as poor risk sentiment

have been leading the moves in Ce3 and Pln has been no exception. We still prefer HUF within

CE3 and expect PLN to underperform on a relative basis, due to the monetary-policy reaction

function as experienced last week.

HUF The NBH cut rates yesterday as part of their summer cutting cycle, but disappointed HUF bulls

by not sounding concerned around the recent HUF sell off. This has taken EURHUF off the low

360s and this morning above 363. Whilst they did acknowledge the recent developments in the

Middle East and now use the conflict as a third factor for shaping their assessment, I thought

there would be more hawkish commentary around FX and the future policy rate given the

recent HUF sell off. Instead focus appears on Sept CPI, whilst Varga also seems quite content

with EURHUF in and around 360 stating the forint is not strong or weak at these levels. It does

now limit moves to the downside (re-assessing my 350 target), especially as oil continues

higher and no clear end to the US/Iran tensions. With the NBH clearly having a higher pain

threshold for FX that I thought, I have lowered my conviction on the trade. I still think you can

sell rallies in EURHUF, but the target moves towards 365/367. Flow wise yesterday we saw

RM and systematics sell HUF.

CZK Spot stable in a 24.17/20 range despite risk on seemingly on shakier footing. Still not seeing

much in the way of catalysts for the koruna in the absence of domestic data and net flows, so