Gulfport Energy: 2Q26 Earnings Preview: Anticipating Solid Ops, But Financial Miss on Mark-to-Market

Research evidence excerpt

Gulfport Energy: 2Q26 Earnings Preview: Anticipating Solid Ops, But Financial Miss on Mark-to-Market

a modest FCF

outflow for GPOR during 2Q, though we model ~$50 MM of buybacks. Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

Adj. EPS ($)

For 2026, GPOR expects production to grow over the back-half of the year and is 2025A 2026E 2027E

targeting 5% YoY growth in 4Q26, which would imply ~1,150 MMcfe/d of exit Q1 5.63 7.28A 7.43

Q2 5.42 3.51 5.33

rate production. This shift in production trajectory will have GPOR’s highest Q3 4.93 5.11 5.75

production of the year heading into the winter when gas prices are typically higher. Q4 5.75 6.46 7.43

We forecast 1,039 MMcfe/d of FY26 production driven by $422 MM of capex vs. FY 21.75 22.35 25.91

the STe at 1,046 MMcfe/d and $438 MM. At recent strip pricing, we estimate that

Style Exposure

GPOR will deliver $382 MM in FY26 FCF, a ~15% FCF yield. As a reminder,

GPOR completed its previously announced $102 MM discretionary acreage

program during 1Q, adding over two years of high-quality inventory adjacent to

core positions in Belmont and Monroe counties. GPOR did not provide any

guidance on the level of discretionary acreage purchases it plans to pursue in 2026,

though it has cited more running room to add incremental locations through the

discretionary acreage program. Separately, GPOR announced it had acquired

~4,700 net undeveloped acres in the core of the Ohio Utica in Belmont County

through the Ohio lease sale for ~$83 MM, adding ~16 net locations (normalized

to 15,000’ laterals) concentrated within its highest-return tier development

opportunities. The total purchase price equates to ~$17,500 per net acre, or $5.1

MM per net location, with development expected to commence in 2027. We look