Mid-Year Prospects: ASX Healthcare – Key Investor Feedback

Research evidence excerpt

Mid-Year Prospects: ASX Healthcare – Key Investor Feedback

Chris Cooper, ACA CFA AC Asia Pacific Equity Research

(61 2) 9003-6221 22 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

chris.cooper@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (Overweight; Price Target: A$42.00)

Investment Thesis

FPH is a global respiratory device manufacturer with leading positions in nasal high flow

therapy, humidified flow generation and OSA. Optiflow has been a transformative success,

both clinically and commercially, underwriting a +20% revenue CAGR in FPH’s key

segment over 15 years. We believe the key debate is the extent to which growth may taper

on the basis of relative maturity in the ICU, a natural shift towards lower-acuity settings and

the prospect of heightened competition. In short, we find reason to be prudent, but see

limited downside risk to our mid-term forecasts (+16% FY25-38e; +15% FY25-30e).

Notably, more recent studies skew towards the less penetrated settings and broader

adoption. FPH is also now leveraging its existing strength into adjacent anesthesia markets.

The exclusion of CPAP from the 2026 round of Competitive Bidding was a significant

positive for Homecare, a segment which receives limited focus despite its materiality (35%

of revenue).

On a growth-adjusted basis, FPH trades slightly ahead of ASX peers given sector-leading

characteristics. Through FY29e, we forecast a 3-year EPS CAGR of +20%, driven

predominantly by a robust organic profile (+12%), in line with the company’s LT target of

+12% pa. Our cash forecast grows meaningfully (towards $1bn by end-decade). Maintain

OW.

Valuation

Our Mar-27 PT of $42 is derived as a blended average of 12-month forward P/E

multiples: (1) company peers (30%); (2) sector (40%); and (3) DCF-implied valuation