Quick Silver: Thoughts & Bogeys into: Nokia, STM, BESI, SAP, Dassault, BT and RELX

Research evidence excerpt

Quick Silver: Thoughts & Bogeys into: Nokia, STM, BESI, SAP, Dassault, BT and RELX

“hope trade” should results, guidance or news flow surprise positively, although that dynamic has

repeatedly failed to produce a sustained re-rating. Increasingly, however, investor conversations have shifted toward AI

disruption risk, with developments from Mistral and Anthropic prompting questions over whether AI-native engineering and

design platforms could gradually erode Dassault’s workflow ownership, pricing power and share of wallet. While few

investors expect near-term displacement of Dassault’s core products, the debate has become noticeably more cautious and the

company is increasingly grouped alongside software names facing growing AI scrutiny. Against that backdrop, confidence in

management remains weak following an extended period of operational mis-execution and communication missteps. Toby

Ogg’s Q2 preview this morning expects broadly in-line results and guidance, and until there is evidence that growth can

sustainably outperform consensus expectations, it is difficult to build conviction in a more durable re-rating. While some

tactical long positioning into the print is possible given bearish positioning, our base case remains another subdued quarter

rather than a meaningful fundamental inflection point. The Financial Times reported last week that Dassault is in talks to

acquire clinical trial software provider ArisGlobal from Nordic Capital for around $2bn, which would represent its second-

largest acquisition after Medidata. Seeing more M&A headlines are unlikely to surprise given the debate around Dassault’s

M&A strategy, particularly after CEO Pascal also assumed the chairman role earlier this year—a change that many knew