Wesfarmers Limited: FY26 Result Outlook – Mt Holland to drive earnings volatility

Research evidence excerpt

Wesfarmers Limited: FY26 Result Outlook – Mt Holland to drive earnings volatility

ment. While

Bunnings faces a housing activity slowdown, we do not expect this to be Half Yearly Forecasts (FYE Jun)

evident in 2H26e given the timing of RBA rate hikes and post-budget tax Adjusted PAT (A$ mn)

changes. Overall consumer spending was solid in June according to 2025A 2026E 2027E

CommBank and NAB transaction data, despite negative sentiment around the H1 1,514 1,683A 1,709

H2 1,357 1,222 1,369

consumer, which might reflect natural lags for activity, but is also a sign of a FY 2,871 2,905 3,079

more resilient spending backdrop. We expect only qualitative, directional

updates on July/August trading from Wesfarmers. We forecast 2H26e LFL Style Exposure

sales growth of +3.0% for Bunnings and Kmart. In FY27e we expect this to

moderate to +2.3% for Bunnings and hold at ~3.2% for Kmart

• Officeworks turnaround expected to begin in 2H27. The reset of the

Officeworks business is set to continue in 2H26, as we forecast earnings down

-23.7%, a larger decline than 1H26 (-18.8%). FY26e is likely to be the trough

in earnings, but we do not expect the growth outlook to accelerate meaningfully

until 2H27e (+14.4% EBIT growth off a low base). The approach to the

promotional program in electronics categories given the elevated memory

price cycle and their value positioning with a lower ASP skew to the range will

be an important read through for JB Hi-Fi and Harvey Norman.

• Mt Holland outlook to come into focus. The announcement of FID approval

around the doubling of Spodumene production from 380ktpa to 760ktpa

(100% basis) was expected, however the capex and time horizon were upside

surprises. We upgrade FY28-FY30e capex (Wesfarmers capex share of A