My 2c on Financials: US Financials Sector Specialist Commentary Banks • Insurance • Diversified Financials

Research evidence excerpt

My 2c on Financials: US Financials Sector Specialist Commentary Banks • Insurance • Diversified Financials

Rob O'Dwyer - Specialist Sales - US Financials AC North America Specialist Sales J P M O R G A Nrob.odwyer@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC 22 July 2026

My 2c on Financials

Rob O’Dwyer

+1 2126222673

rob.odwyer@jpmorgan.com

Key Highlights

• Consumer Credit - COF strong print but patience still needed

• Exchanges & Info Services - CME over MCO today

• WM & Cap Mkts - SF decent, NTRS ok but worst of trusts?

• Insurance - CB margins good, growth not so much | NP a unique story

Morning – busy tape again today. Earnings remain healthy and I doubt we’ll see any blow ups a la MSCI yesterday based on what

I am seeing overnight and this morning:

Banks & Consumer Credit

Capital One – Lets start with the good here, the quarter was really strong, but you just have to be comfortable that COF is

going to continue to spend a ton of money and believe that that spend will result in considerable operational leverage over

time. Rick's point that this is one of the few financials still ~20% below its all time high, and given the level of execution from

COF, and the mix of assets within it, this remains a great opportunity. In terms of the quarter itself, it was a solid beat with adj

EPS of $5.81 vs cons $4.69, and importantly the quality was good, with NCOs -39bps q/q and DQs -31bps q/q while consumer

spend held up. The one thing keeping a lid on the story is the Discover brownout, which continues to suppress card loan

growth until an expected bottoming around 4Q26, so you have to be willing to look through that. Otherwise, the strategic

pieces are tracking, with Discover and Brex integration on plan, early revenue synergies beginning to flow, tech/AI