Vår Energi: Strengthening Near- and Medium-Term Investment Case

Research evidence excerpt

Vår Energi: Strengthening Near- and Medium-Term Investment Case

17.1%

Adj. EPS - 27E ($) 0.47 0.42 -10.2%

extraordinary year-end distribution subject to the macro backdrop, we believe the

announcement further strengthens both the near- and medium-term investment Style Exposure

case. We remain Overweight and maintain our price target of NOK 54/share after

updating our model for 2Q results, with the proposed BlueNord acquisition not yet

reflected in our estimates.

• BlueNord strengthens production visiblity, cash generation, and dividend

capacity. Management positioned the BlueNord acquisition as a strategically

complementary addition to Var’s portfolio, adding a fifth production hub with

~45kboepd of production on the Danish Continental Shelf (DCS) with similar

geological and fiscal characteristics while maintaining the company’s 65% oil

/ 35% gas mix. Incremental color on the call suggested the value creation

extends beyond production, with 80-90% of the guided $250-300mm post-tax

synergies expected to come from refinancing BlueNord’s existing debt onto

Var’s investment-grade balance sheet (~300bps funding differential),

supplemented by overhead savings and gas portfolio optimization. The

company also highlighted a $366mm Danish tax loss asset, expected to be

realized over the next 12-24 months, while reiterating that the transaction

remains accretive on per share metrics. Importantly, management noted that

the acquired assets carry relatively low decline rates and limited near-term

capital requirements ($2.5B avg 2026-2032 VAR standalone capex guidance

was maintained), supporting cash generation, while emphasizing that upside

from progressing BlueNord’s 2C resource base has not been included in the

transaction value. Closing is expected around year end 2026.