Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL): First Take: 1Q FY27 - Far better than feared

Research evidence excerpt

Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL): First Take: 1Q FY27 - Far better than feared

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

22 July 2026

Bharat Petroleum Corporation

(BPCL) Overweight

BPCL.NS, BPCL IN

First Take: 1Q FY27 - Far better than feared Price (22 Jul 26):Rs314.00

Price Target (Mar-27):Rs385.00

Our First Take: BPCL’s 1Q FY27 standalone net loss of c.Rs40bn was much

better than our/consensus expectations (loss of Rs156bn/Rs126bn). The EBITDA

loss of Rs41bn was also lower than feared (c. JPMe loss of Rs137bn). This beat

does not seem to be an accounting issue (say inventory valuations); BPCL's

standalone debt increased from Rs105bn at end-March to Rs174bn at end-June.

This is much lower than expected. BPCL’s stronger-than-expected quarter also

contrasts with HPCL’s 1Q print. HPCL reported larger-than-expected losses Head of India Research

AC(EBITDA loss of Rs161bn) and a much larger increase in debt (up Rs250bn QoQ). Sanjay Mookim

(91-22) 6157-3600

BPCL reported a 1Q net LPG under-recovery of Rs34.9bn (post compensation of sanjay.mookim@jpmorgan.com

Rs19bn). This implies that adjusted EBITDA (all products ex-LPG, refining + Atishy Rathi, CFA

marketing) was close to breakeven for BPCL. This is counter-intuitive given a) (9122) 6157-3589

large negative marketing margins on petrol/diesel, b) likely inventory losses on atishy.rathi@jpmchase.com

declines in crude, and c) comments made in media reports and by government J.P.Tower,MorganSantacruz(E),India PrivateMumbaiLimited,- 400098,J.P. MorganSEBI

officials during the quarter. These highlighted that underrecoveries across the 3 Registration: INH000001873, (91-22) 6157-3000.

OMCs during 1Q stood at Rs748bn (link) and that borrowing levels were hitting

their limits (link).