SCA Q2‘26 Results Review: Margin Wounds Starting to SCAB Over

Research evidence excerpt

SCA Q2‘26 Results Review: Margin Wounds Starting to SCAB Over

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

22 July 2026

SCA Neutral

SCAb.ST, SCAB SS

Q2’26 Results Review: Margin Wounds Starting to Price (21 Jul 26):Skr101.15

SCAB Over ▲Price Target (Dec-27):Skr110.00 Prior (Dec-27):Skr102.00

SCA’s Q2’26 EBITDA beat JPMe by 13% at the EBITDA level. This was mainly

driven by better mix effects in the Containerboard division (explained below) and EMEA Forestry, Paper & Packaging

and South African Industrialsstronger than expected volumes in the Pulp division. Going forward, we (and

management) expect Q3’26 EBITDA to be higher than Q2’26 (JPMe: +14% q/q) Detlef Winckelmann AC

with higher kraftliner prices, lower wood fibre costs and stable demand driving this (44-20) 3493-5190

detlef.winckelmann@jpmorgan.com

sequential improvement. Below, we highlight key take-aways from the conference J.P. Morgan Securities plc / J.P. Morgan Markets

call and take the opportunity to update our estimates for the most recent set of Limited

results as well as the most recent commodity price moves. As a result of SCA Madhumita Phadke

beating our Q2’26 estimate and the kraftliner price increase announcement we saw (91-22) 6157-3935

earlier this month, we increase our 2026 EBITDA by 7%, placing us in line with madhumita.phadke@jpmchase.com

consensus. Our 2027 EBITDA estimate moves higher by 8%, placing us 1% below J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

consensus. As a result of these forecast changes, our SotP valuation increases by

~8% to a 31 December 2027 target price of SEK 110/share. Key Changes (FYE Dec)

• Containerboard. The Containerboard division beat our Q2’26 expectations Adj. EBITDA - 26E (Skr mn) 5,194Prev 5,536Cur 6.6%Δ

mainly due to a better mix effect than we had expected.