Weaker-than-Expected 2Q26; FY26E Guidance Appears Unattainable on Combination of Buyer Decision Delay and Internal Execution Shortfalls

Research evidence excerpt

Weaker-than-Expected 2Q26; FY26E Guidance Appears Unattainable on Combination of Buyer Decision Delay and Internal Execution Shortfalls

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

22 July 2026

Pegasystems

Weaker-than-Expected 2Q26; FY26E Guidance Overweight

Appears Unattainable on Combination of Buyer PEGA, PEGA US

Decision Delay and Internal Execution Shortfalls Price (21 Jul 26):$30.94

▼Price Target (Dec-27):$54.00

Prior (Dec-27):$64.00

PEGA posted a weaker-than-expected 2Q26 print, with prepared remarks

reinforcing that the near-term debate has shifted from “timing noise” to demand/ Vertical SaaS & HealthTech

timing friction as buyers digest rapid changes in AI economics. On the call, Alexei Gogolev AC

management framed the 1H challenges around three drivers: (1) a back-half– (1-212) 622-9391

weighted renewal portfolio (fewer renewals → fewer expansion moments), (2) alexei.gogolev@jpmorgan.com

“unprecedented” AI-market disruption (token-cost opacity / “token maxing” Destiny Jackson

whiplash) elongating decision cycles, and (3) slower-than-expected go-to-market (1-212) 622-4360

destiny.jackson@jpmorgan.com

execution in driving deeper engagement and new logo traction. This dynamic

Ella Smith

resulted in a failure to close multiple deals within anticipated timeframes,

(1-212) 622-2451

exacerbated by buyer confusion. While the company leaned into its “Predictable ella.smith@jpmchase.com

AI / no per-token cost” positioning and highlighted the Infinity 26 + Infinity Studio Isabella A Camaj

launch as a catalyst to improve productivity and reduce barriers to entry, (1-212) 834-2379

management also acknowledged that recovering the 1H ACV shortfall will be bella.camaj@jpmorgan.com

“very difficult,” effectively raising the bar on the prior 2H re-acceleration setup. J.P.