Gecina A bit mixed. Shares look cheap but catalysts hard to find: 1H26 First Take

Research evidence excerpt

Gecina A bit mixed. Shares look cheap but catalysts hard to find: 1H26 First Take

Neil Green, CFA AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7134-4478 22 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

neil.d.green@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Gecina (Neutral; Price Target: €94.00)

Investment Thesis

Gecina offers exposure to primarily prime Central Paris offices (with some retail exposure)

and residential in France. The company has been progressing significant development since

the acquisition of Eurosic and this is now coming to fruition with predominantly pre-let

developments completing in recent years, supporting earnings growth. Paris office values

surprised to the upside in 1H24, and combined with the anticipated earnings growth we see

the shares as attractively valued.

Valuation

Our Dec-27 price target for Gecina is based on our total returns-based European Valuation

Model, which takes into account whether a company creates or destroys value. We argue that

companies that have a positive spread between returns and their weighted average cost of

capital (WACC) should trade at a premium to NNAV, whereas those with a negative spread

should be priced below NNAV. We apply this spread to the invested capital, discount back,

and add to/subtract from our NNAV forecast to derive our price target.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Declining inflation and hence its flow into the Indexation into rental growth could prove to

be a downside risk, while the execution of the next phase of developments adds operational

risk into what could be a weakening macro outlook. Upside risks include robust rental

growth continuing despite lower inflation, a return of transaction activity that helps the

market underwrite current NAV, while pre-lets of the new office schemes would be taken

well.