Bolivia: Balanzá Cambiaria: The cash FX window

Research evidence excerpt

Bolivia: Balanzá Cambiaria: The cash FX window

J P M O R G A N Latin America Economic Research

22 July 2026

Bolivia

Balanza Cambiaria: The cash FX window

Emerging Markets Economic and

Policy Research

Juan Goldin

(57 601) 869 8746

juan.goldin@jpmchase.com

BANCO J.P. MORGAN COLOMBIA S.A

• The Balanza Cambiaria offers a cash-based, timelier read on hard-

currency flows, complementing the accrual-based balance of payments

• 2Q26 cash inflows were broadly flat y/y (+US$93mn), with external debt

inflows leading and export cash inflows still lagging accrued exports

• Cash outflows slowed sharply, driven by lower import payments, partly

reflecting weaker activity and higher import credit capacity

• The 2Q26 cash dollar surplus rose to US$518mn (YTD US$161mn),

broadly consistent with the improvement in cash reserves

• Reserve adequacy remains very weak, with net reserves still negative at

-US$1.1bn once broader hard-currency liabilities are included

Although the balance of payments is published quarterly and with a lag, the central

bank’s monthly “Balanza Cambiaria” report provides a timelier read on hard-

currency inflows and outflows. The two concepts are related but not equivalent.

The balance of payments is compiled on an accrual basis, recording transactions

between residents and non-residents regardless of whether they involve an

immediate cash flow. By contrast, the Balanza Cambiaria is reported on a cash

basis, offering a direct view of actual dollar inflows and outflows. While we

typically rely on the balance of payments to assess the sustainability of the external

accounts, the cash-basis Balanza Cambiaria is a useful complement for gauging

periods of hard-currency surplus or scarcity.

Following the FX market unification—and given the central bank’s need to rebuild