Venture Global: 2Q26 Preview; Qatari LNG Production The Big Swing Factor Into 2027

Research evidence excerpt

Venture Global: 2Q26 Preview; Qatari LNG Production The Big Swing Factor Into 2027

J P M O R G A N North America Credit Research

22 July 2026

Venture Global

2Q26 Preview; Qatari LNG Production The Big Swing

Factor Into 2027

High Yield Energy

Tarek Hamid AC

(1-212) 834-5468

tarek.x.hamid@jpmorgan.com

Aaron Rosenthal, CFA

LNG fundamentals remain bullish. Global LNG prices have rallied significantly (1-212) 270-4584

aaron.rosenthal@jpmorgan.com

over the last month following the break in the cease-fire with Iran and the

Nevin Mathewresumption of military strikes. Notably, the re-escalation of the conflict seemingly

(1-212) 834-5714

began with a strike on an LNG vessel. TTF and JKM front-month prices are up nevin.mathew@jpmchase.com

40-50% from the June lows and are now trading at ~$21/mmbtu. Venture Global

Elle Boyd

common and preferred equity have rallied amid the recent volatility in LNG (1-212) 270-7283

markets, while the OpCo and HoldCo bonds have had relatively muted elle.boyd@jpmchase.com

performance. J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Qatari LNG production likely to be a major swing factor. Qatar announced a

pause in previously announced ramp up efforts in July following the resumption

of the conflict, with recent loadings appearing to imply ~22% utilization. However,

our commodity strategists estimate that Qatar could reach “tank-full” in the next

2-3 weeks which could potentially force production to shut down or drop

materially. A shutdown in production would result in another 2-3 months for a full

restart, which would imply entering the heating season without ~17% of global

LNG production. Furthermore, Iran reintroduced threats to attack energy sites in

the region as it exchanged threats with the US. Taking nearly a fifth of global LNG