Daily Economic Briefing: Energy rises over troubled waters

Research evidence excerpt

Daily Economic Briefing: Energy rises over troubled waters

J P M O R G A N Global Economic Research

22 July 2026

Daily Economic Briefing

Energy rises over troubled waters

Economic and Policy Research

Alex Gallin

(1-212) 270-5492

alex.gallin@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

• Renewed escalation between the US and Iran is lifting energy prices. Brent has Maia(1-212)Crook622-8435

moved up to about $94/bbl, reversing its decline since mid-June, while product maia.crook@jpmorgan.com

prices have risen more sharply as reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

and disruptions to Russian refineries tightened diesel supply. The Iran-backed Nora Szentivanyi

Houthis’ announcement of a blockade targeting Saudi-linked shipping in the (44-20) 7134-7544

Red Sea adds another risk to regional energy exports and shipping routes. Even nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com

so, our commodities team continues to expect diplomacy to prevail and views J.P. Morgan Securities plc

a sustained mutual blockade of the Strait as a tail risk rather than the base case. Joseph Lupton

(1-212) 834-5735

Petro-based product prices joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com

Index, Sep '25 = 100 Jet JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

Fuel Natural Gas 210 Conflict (Europe)

Diesel 110

(Europe) Crude

Nov 25 Jan 26 Mar 26 May 26 Jul 26

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan

• China’s June fiscal data confirmed slow deployment in 2Q, leaving substantial

room to support growth in 2H. General budget spending rebounded in June, but

infrastructure outlays remained in contraction, while weak land sales

continued to weigh on local-government finances. Slower bond issuance and

project deployment should allow fiscal execution to accelerate in 2H,

supporting our forecast for growth to pick up: last week, we raised our 2H26