Molina Healthcare: Mixed Bag: Medicaid Stable, Medicare Positive, But Marketplace Misses and Guidance Increase May Fall Short of Expectations

Research evidence excerpt

Molina Healthcare: Mixed Bag: Medicaid Stable, Medicare Positive, But Marketplace Misses and Guidance Increase May Fall Short of Expectations

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

22 July 2026

Molina Healthcare

Mixed Bag: Medicaid Stable, Medicare Positive, But Neutral

Marketplace Misses and Guidance Increase May Fall MOH, MOH US

Short of Expectations Price (22 Jul 26):$221.74

Managed Care and Facilities

After the close, MOH posted 2Q earnings ahead of expectations, highlighting John Stansel, CFA AC

stable Medicaid cost trend while increasing 2026 guidance by $0.25. That (1-212) 622-0083

statement understates the moving parts in the quarter for MOH, and while we view john.stansel@jpmorgan.com

the stable Medicaid trend in 2Q as a positive following ELV's earnings, other Lisa C. Gill

factors including downward revisions in Marketplace (adverse morbidity and (1-212) 622-6466

2025 risk adjustment updates) and outperformance in Medicare (favorable, similar lisa.c.gill@jpmorgan.com

to UNH/ELV) create a more complicated picture. While we recognize MOH has Benjamin Rossi

been debated into the quarter given the shift in valuation since 1Q, we believe the (1-212) 622-9603

benjamin.rossi@jpmorgan.com

1H outperformance (~$0.40 in 1Q plus $0.10-$0.15 outperformance in 2Q) and

Cole Harris

management's initial 67%/33% 1H/2H cadence would indicate an increase to (1-212) 622-9068

guidance of at least $0.50, versus the $0.25 guidance increase provided with 2Q cole.harris@jpmorgan.com

earnings. On tomorrow's call, we expect the company to frame the factors J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

underlying stable Medicaid trend, as well as the trajectory of improvement exiting

2026 and the underlying assumptions embedded in the updated guidance. MOH is

hosting a call tomorrow at 8:00am ET.