South African Banks: CIB deep dive confirms SA banks‘ resilience and scale led winners

Research evidence excerpt

South African Banks: CIB deep dive confirms SA banks‘ resilience and scale led winners

J P M O R G A N CEEMEA Equity Research

23 July 2026

South African Banks

CIB deep dive confirms SA banks' resilience and scale

led winners

CIB is a core earnings engine for South Africa’s Big-4 banks—spanning wholesale CEEMEA Financials

AClending, transaction banking, global markets and investment banking/advisory— Baron Nkomo

and accounts for c.42% of combined earnings, making it central to strategy and (27-11) 507-0385

capital allocation. We therefore take a closer look at the segment’s scale, mix and baron.nkomo@jpmorgan.com

durability, and our key conclusion is that scale—reinforced by pan‑African J.P. Morgan Equities South Africa (Pty) Ltd.

geographic positioning—drives a more resilient, annuity‑leaning revenue mix and Pooja Ruia

structurally higher returns, which should keep the leading CIB franchises (91-22) 6157-3688

pooja.ruia@jpmchase.com

compounding through the cycle. Absa has the highest CIB contribution at 53% of J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

group earnings (vs Standard Bank 49% and Nedbank 46%), while FirstRand is the

Mehmet Sevim

clear outlier at 26% (with a steadier CIB contribution over time, but simply less (971) 4428-1784

CIB-driven). Importantly, CIB ROEs are already strong at c.21–22% across the mehmet.sevim@jpmorgan.com

banks and we expect this to be broadly sustained; they also sit above group ROEs J.P. Morgan Securities plc

(Standard Bank c.22% CIB vs 19% group; Absa c.21% vs 15%; Nedbank c.21%

vs 15%; FirstRand c.21% vs 20%), reinforcing CIB as a key driver of overall

valuation support. Looking ahead (3 years), we see CIB earnings growth led by

Standard Bank at c.11% on average (in line with FirstRand at c.11%), with Absa

and Nedbank behind at c.8%.