Retail Radar: Jul 22 – Momentum Cooldown, Hyperscaler Earnings

Research evidence excerpt

Retail Radar: Jul 22 – Momentum Cooldown, Hyperscaler Earnings

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

22 July 2026

Retail Radar

Jul 22 – Momentum Cooldown, Hyperscaler Earnings

Retail Trading Activity Overview Equity Strategy and Quantitative

Research

• Retail flows were moderate last week (35.3%ile), essentially unchanged Arun Jain AC

from the prior week. ETF inflows continued to fade (4%ile from 18%ile), but (1-212) 622-9454

arun.p.jain@jpmorgan.com

stronger single‑stock activity helped offset some of that softness (71.8%ile J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

from 51%ile). This slowdown in retail engagement aligns with the recent AC Shizuka Suga, CFA

market nervousness around the Momentum drawdown. The factor has (1-212) 622-2134

unwound sharply over the past month (down 14% on a long vs. short basis shizuka.suga@jpmorgan.com

across cap-weighted S&P 500 quintiles). The unwind was particularly intense J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

given crowding was at an extreme, Figure 2MomentumUnwindNowvsFeb-Mar’25, signaling a high probability of a Ana Pous Avila

factor flash crash (see Mid-Year Outlook). Consistent with that dynamic, the (1-212) 622-0496

current unwind has featured repeated high-magnitude negative tail events, ana.pousavila@jpmorgan.com

including a −6 sigma day last Thursday and seven extreme negative-sigma J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

observations (-3 sigma or worse) over the 18 days during this unwind (see William Matheson

Figure 3FrequentNegativeHigh-SigmaEventsinMomentum). (1-212) 622-9538

william.matheson@jpmchase.com

• Within ETFs, weakness continued to be broad based. Sector flows were J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

particularly soft, Figure 2RetailImbalanceinFinancialsattheir14mhighs,, with Tech ETF inflows turning negative, Figure 4Retail Khuram Chaudhry