Latin America Corporates: El Niño—Uneven Effects Across Latam

Research evidence excerpt

Latin America Corporates: El Niño—Uneven Effects Across Latam

e capacity in Mato Grosso do Sul, where El Niño has

historically been less disruptive, while Klabin is more exposed through its Paraná

footprint and rail-to-port flows via Paranaguá. CMPC looks more exposed to wetter,

flood-prone regions, including Rio Grande do Sul and central-south Chile, while Arauco

is more diversified across Chile and Argentina, with future exposure to Mato Grosso do

Sul through Sucuriú.

• For Latin American power generators, El Niño’s credit implications are highly issuer-

specific and driven by the interaction between hydrology, system balances, and

commercial positioning. In the Andes, while basin outcomes can be difficult to forecast,

most IG names we monitor appear insulated from large swings in credit metrics thanks

to diversified portfolios, healthy contracted positions, and disciplined commercial

strategies—and, in the case of AES Andes (with meaningful Colombia sensitivity), a

moderating capex profile that supports cash generation through the cycle. Colombia

remains the clearest case where El Niño-linked dryness can tighten the system and

support thermal generators (e.g., Enfragen), although sector-level upside can be diluted

by cash-conversion risk tied to overdue payments from distribution companies. A similar

drought-prone setup often applies in Central America, where hydro shortfalls can

increase reliance on thermal generation and imports, leaving thermal fleets relatively well

positioned. In Brazil, dispersion typically reflects regional asymmetries, often supportive

hydro conditions in the South/Southeast versus higher dryness risk in the North/

Northeast; so, outcomes are driven by asset footprint and contracting/hedging. See more