Macquarie, Bank Indonesia (BMRI), Korea Banks, Thai Banks (AQ), BoJ

Research evidence excerpt

Macquarie, Bank Indonesia (BMRI), Korea Banks, Thai Banks (AQ), BoJ

Specialist Sales

APAC Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

23 July 2026

In Japan, USDJPY remains above 163 level and English media continues to write about the “Honebuto Shock”. Bloomberg

(Link) and Reuters (Link) yesterday reported BoJ is open to faster hike pace vs the dominant market view of twice a year. While

it’s not necessarily new as that NHK last month has reported a possibility of hikes every few months (Link), it may help solidify

Oct hike as consensus for the next hike. (JPMe is Oct and two more next year. But Ayako has flagged a possiblity of three hikes a

yr. Link) As investors often ask about what policy rate is priced in Japan banks share price, I think about a very basic benchmark

of PBR around 1.7x for mega in 1.5% policy rate scenario (FY28 ROE 14%, PER 12x). Takahiro uses PER 14x for mega’s PT.

Ask for his rate sensitivity Excel.

Thai banks havebeen enjoying a nice rally for their dividend theme, w/ their dividend yield (6-7%) meaningfully above Thai

10Y around 2%. While investors have tried to test Malaysian banks for their econ growth acceleration and banks’ potential for

finally releasing ample CET1 to shareholders, May’s disappointment on shareholder return has cooled the sentiment and

investors’ excitement for the sector. Malaysia also faces the risk of an earlier than expected election. In this context, rising

concerns about Thai banks’ asset quality this earnings season are notable (NPL formation increased for SCB: Link, BBL

Link) as stability (lack of growth means no AQ issues) was given for their dividend theme. Harsh argues that the near-term pick-

up in NPL formation is manageable (low recent formation vs history + stable/improving Stage 2) and concern on dividend