The Point for Australia/NZ

Research evidence excerpt

The Point for Australia/NZ

Point |

Thursday, 23 July 2026

Company | Global | Key Rating and Target Price Changes

Company

Beach Energy Limited (BPT.AX) - Waitsia reliability in focus; dividend reset likely

to disappoint

BPT’s JunQ production and sales miss was largely offset by stronger net debt

although adjusting for ~A$80m of Yolla-1 abandonment capex sees net debt

broadly in-line with our estimate (See First Take here). While management has

downplayed Waitsia compressor issues, we would like to see sustained production

rates following the September shutdown and maintenance program before

becoming more constructive. We expect the updated capital management

framework to be more conservative than consensus expects, but view this as

prudent given the need to preserve B/S flexibility and reduce funding risk. We

estimate Beach has A$624m of B/S headroom at FY26 increasing to A$826m by

FY27 at 25% gearing. Although Otway and Taroom offer attractive medium-term

growth potential, we remain cautious pending further de-risking of Waitsia and

evidence of a recovery in weather-affected production. As a result, we see near-

term downside risk to consensus earnings and dividend expectations.

Tom Wallington

CSL Ltd (CSL.AX) - US neurologist survey – Ig prescribing in CIDP looks steady

but first line FcRn prescribing is growing

Yesterday we published the July iteration of our proprietary longitudinal survey of

US neurologists (n=103). The data again show that use of Ig in CIDP patients

(20%+ of CSL’s Ig sales) looks fairly constant. They also show that the intent to

prescribe drops off slightly further out. This has been the case for the past few

survey iterations, yet each time Ig prescribing does not move much, so in practice

we think physician caution and some stickiness is real.