SSA & Covered Bond Navigator: EU: auction indigestion

Research evidence excerpt

SSA & Covered Bond Navigator: EU: auction indigestion

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22 Jul 2026 13:51:43 ET │ 34 pages

SSA & Covered Bond Navigator

EU: auction indigestion

CITI'S TAKE

Jussi Harju, CFA AC

The EU has outperformed OATs in 10-30y in the past month and trades +49-69-1366-5655

through them the most since 2025 warranting a closer look at the demand jussi.harju@citi.com

trends. Primary demand for EU has increased in 2026, but this has been

mainly led by syndications whilst demand for auctions has declined to

record lows. As such, the share of auctions within EU’s funding mix is

unlikely to increase significantly in 2026. Given the EU’s tentative

syndication maturities in H2, the long end of its curve might come under

widening pressure, though not until September when syndications resume.

New/Closed trades — No new trades this week. For open trades, see Open SSA and

Covered Bond Trades).

EU Funding Update — No EU supply this week. As of 22 July, the EU has issued

€117bn making up 65% of its 2026 funding target. The next supply window is 31

August auction, in which we expect the EU to issue up to €5.5bn (see EU – Funding

Dashboard).

SSA Primary Issuance — Very little to report on primary SSA supply with only one

$1.5bn 3y deal issued. As of 22 July, the YTD gross supply in €, $ and £ SSAs stood

at €521bn equivalent (up 0.3% from the same period last year) of which €330bn has

been issued in euros (up 3.7% from the same period last year; see SSAs: Weekly

Primary Market Recap).

Covered Bond Primary Issuance — No primary issuance this week. As of 22 July, the

YTD covered bond gross supply stood at €154bn equivalent, of which €122bn been

issued in euros (see Covered Bonds: Weekly Primary Market Recap).

SSA and Covered Bonds Secondary Market Overview — See Secondary Market