Latin America Economics & Strategy Daily: Brazil Polls, INEGI and ISE Releases, Argentina Rating, Uruguay Pension Reform

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Latin America Economics & Strategy Daily: Brazil Polls, INEGI and ISE Releases, Argentina Rating, Uruguay Pension Reform

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22 Jul 2026 09:31:43 ET │ 18 pages

Latin America Economics & Strategy

Daily

Brazil Polls, INEGI and ISE Releases, Argentina Rating, Uruguay

Pension Reform Ernesto Revilla AC

+1-212-816-2621

ernesto.revilla@citi.com

CITI'S TAKE

Luis E Costa, CFA AC

Today we discuss developments in Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Colombia and +44-20-7986-9757

Uruguay luis.costa@citi.com

Regional Macro — The USD continues to be influenced by two major opposing Esteban Tamayo AC

forces. On one hand, recent headlines pointing to a renewed wave of U.S. tariffs have esteban.tamayo@citi.com

reinforced concerns about growth and challenged the narrative of U.S. AC Leonardo Portoexceptionalism. On the other hand, the re-escalation of tensions in the Middle East

has increased upside risks to energy prices, providing near-term support for the leonardo.porto@citi.com

dollar. As the conflict deepens, both sides continue to downplay the prospects for AC Paulo Lopes

imminent negotiations (Bloomberg, 07-22-2026), the timing and conditions under

paulo.lopes@citi.comwhich they may return to the negotiating table remain the key unknown. The

resulting terms-of-trade shock for the euro area, driven by higher energy costs, Thais Ortega AC

suggests net-net for us continued downside pressure on the EUR, particularly thais.ortega@citi.com

against higher-carry EM currencies.

Felipe Juncal AC

LatAm Strategy Trades — We remain long BRL against EUR and AUD as the current felipe.juncal@citi.com

macroeconomic backdrop still suggests resilience for high real-yielding EM (link).

We are holding on to our vol adjusted (structurally long USD) long MXN, BRL and Donato Guarino AC