Catalyst Watch Tracker: July 15–21

Research evidence excerpt

Catalyst Watch Tracker: July 15–21

What’s inside

The weekly Catalyst Watch Tracker highlights new Catalyst Watch calls across all regions and sectors, with an overlay of our

Global Quantitative Research team’s most recently published Crowding Composite scores. The Tracker also covers closed

and expired calls, and YTD absolute and relative call performance tables by region

Launched in 4Q 2016, Catalyst Watch is a system of short-term directional calls on select stocks within Citi’s coverage

universe. The calls reflect our fundamental analysts’ expectations for catalyst-driven share price movements over a period

of 30 or 90 days. They either are closed by the analyst or expire naturally

– A Catalyst Watch call is independent of the analyst’s 12-month fundamental rating and target price; as such, it may or

may not align directionally with the expected share price performance of the longer-term view. In cases where it does not,

the Catalyst Watch is not intended as a hedge to the longer-term view and/or recommendation

The Quant Crowding Composite is a systematic way to measure crowding in the global equity market for individual stocks.

It was first developed for the US market in 2018 and now includes Europe and Asia. It is intended to provide investors with a

more robust risk/reward analysis. Crowded stocks (high crowding composite) may be less likely to attract marginal

investors, while less-crowded stocks (low crowding composite) may attract a larger set of new investors.

The Crowding Composite score is an additional reference for a stock with an open Catalyst Watch call. Stocks with

downside catalysts and that are deemed more crowded may have more difficulty finding marginal investors and are subject

to greater risk if a negative inflection emerges.