Asia Chart Alert

Research evidence excerpt

Asia Chart Alert

Global Markets Research

21 July 2026Asia Chart Alert

Economics - Asia ex-Japan

Research Analysts

Nomura’s leading index of Asian exports Asia Economics

Rob Subbaraman - NSL

NELI continues its rise to loftier levels, signaling an Asian export rob.subbaraman@nomura.com

supercycle. +65 6433 6548

Si Ying Toh, CFA - NSL

siying.toh@nomura.com

+65 6433 6666

Fig. 1: Nomura’s leading index of Asian exports

• Nomura’s leading index of Asia ex-Japan’s aggregate

exports, or NELI for short, comprises nine components

and has a three-month lead time. NELI has correctly

predicted past major turning points and is less distorted

by base effects than official export data, making it a

good momentum leading indicator of Asia’s underlying

export growth.

• NELI extended its rising streak, surging to 124.2 in

August. This suggests Asia's export growth momentum

is showing no signs of slowing into Q3. The rise is

underpinned by continued strength in tech-related

indicators and rising Chinese import demand.

• The AI tech supercycle remains the principal driver of

Asian export growth and there are signsofit

broadeningout. However, with the re-escalation of the

US-Iran conflict, the renewed blockage of the SoH and

the Houthis threatening disruptions to cargo shipments

through the Red Sea, global supply chain pressures

may start to re-emerge. As a result, downside risks to

Asian exports may begin to materialise.

Note: Nomura’s export leading index can be found on Bloomberg (see ticker: NMEIXLI). Asia ex-Japan’s aggregate (nominal) exports include those of China, Hong Kong,

India, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand. China’s exports to Hong Kong are excluded due to outsized swings on some

occasions that seem unrelated to trade activity.