First Insights: UK jobs data steady but Iran tensions cloud outlook

Research evidence excerpt

First Insights: UK jobs data steady but Iran tensions cloud outlook

Global Markets Research

21 July 2026First Insights

Economics - Global

Research Analysts

UK jobs data steady but Iran tensions cloud outlook European Economics

Josie Anderson - NIplc

• ThelatestUKlabourmarketreportprovidedagenerallygoodsetofnumbers, josie.anderson@nomura.com

includingtheunemploymentrateremainingat4.9%andonlyasmallfallinpayrolls. +44 (0) 20 7102 4284

George Buckley - NIplc

• Privatesectorwagegrowthslowedto0.15%m-o-mfrom0.4%inApril,butthatwasin george.buckley@nomura.com

linewithourforecast. +44 (0) 20 7102 1800

Andrzej Szczepaniak - NIplc

• Today’sdatadolittletoalterourviewofnochangeinratesattheBoEmeetingnext andrzej.szczepaniak@nomura.com

week.However,there-escalationoftheIranwarwillraiseconcernsaboutsecond- +44 (0) 20 7102 3167

roundinflationeffectsfortheMPC.

Jobs report had a generally good set of numbers

Today’s job report had a generally good set of numbers on the UK’s labour market (see

Figure 1).

The unemployment rate remained at 4.9% (we had expected a tenth rise to 5%,

consensus was for unchanged). Employment was up notably, by almost 150k in the latest

quarter, compared with our forecast of 125k and consensus at 80k. Moreover, all of the

rise in employment was driven by full-time employees. There was also a notably large rise

in hours worked (up 1.1% q-o-q). However, note that in this edition of the labour force

survey (LFS), the ONS made an operational error, which led to temporary under-

resourcing in telephone collection operations. The ONS said this had a minimal impact on

the headline estimates, but does suggest there is a small but noticeable impact on total

actual hours worked.

Fig. 1: Today’s job report was encouraging Fig.