U-Next Holdings: Energy business headwinds expected to weigh on earnings

Research evidence excerpt

U-Next Holdings: Energy business headwinds expected to weigh on earnings

Global Markets Research

21 July 2026U-Next Holdings

9418.T 9418 JP / EQUITY: JAPAN MEDIA

RatingEnergy business headwinds expected to weigh on

Remains Neutralearnings

Target price JPY 1,940 RemainsTailwinds for financial business limited; awaiting new growth drivers

Closing price JPY 1,678Keeping Neutral rating; lack of catalysts owing to headwinds for energy business 17 July 2026

We update our earnings forecasts for U-Next Holdings based on 26/8 Q3 (Mar–May) results.

Implied upside +15.6%The outlook is highly uncertain, with, for instance, Japan Electric Power Exchange (JEPX)

system prices holding at a high level due to the ongoing Iran conflict. We lower our earnings

forecasts for the energy business, as there is also ongoing uncertainty about the impact of new

METI regulations on the retail electric power industry over the longer term as well. We nudge up

Relative performance chartour earnings forecasts for the financial, realty & global segment to factor in a several hundred

million yen boost to annual sales as a result of a competitor's bankruptcy, but we think it is also

important to keep an eye on potential negative effects, such as some of U-Next Holdings’ own

customers going out of business due to ripple effects from that bankruptcy. We keep our

Neutral rating, as we see few catalysts for earnings or the share price at this point.

We forecast an EPS CAGR of around 9.6% for the four years through 31/8 (over the 27/8

baseline). While this is higher than the Russell/Nomura Large Cap (ex financials) average of 6–

7%, we continue to apply no premium in view of the high level of uncertainty about the short- to