Japan housing & real estate: Housing demand polarizing between high-priced and low-priced products

Research evidence excerpt

Japan housing & real estate: Housing demand polarizing between high-priced and low-priced products

Global Markets Research

21 July 2026Japan housing & real estate

EQUITY: JAPAN HOUSING & REAL ESTATE

Housing demand polarizing between high-priced Research Analysts

and low-priced products Japan housing & real estate Daisuke Fukushima - NSC

daisuke.fukushima@nomura.com

Ongoing supply of high-priced city-center properties +81 3 6703 1150

High-priced Azabu-Juban project proves popular

The Real Estate Economic Institute published its June survey on the new-build condo

market in the greater Tokyo area on 21 July, reporting a sharp 12% y-y rise in selling

prices per square meter but a 3% decline in total contract signings. Sales appear to have

remained solid, particularly for high-priced properties. Sales began in June for Park Court

Azabu-Juban The Tower (1,342 total units, 762 units for general sale), developed by

Mitsui Fudosan [8801] and others and set to be a flagship property among condominiums

to be sold in 2026, and we estimate that sales momentum was favorable. With occupants

unlikely to move in until October 2029 at the earliest, we expect earnings at major

diversified real estate developers to remain strong, as they have started to sign contracts

not only for 27/3 but also for 28/3 and beyond. We attribute this to strong demand for high-

end condos from high net worth individuals and from with wealth effects caused by rising

share prices. Looking ahead to 2027 onwards, we expect average prices to rise across

the board as a result of the planned supply of high-end condos in central Tokyo, which

remain scarce. We expect Apr–Jun results, which will be announced beginning next week,

to show steady progress with contract signings for condos.