Near-term share price reflects weak Q2 earnings

Research evidence excerpt

Near-term share price reflects weak Q2 earnings

Global Markets Research

21 July 2026Rigaku Holdings

268A.T 268A JP / EQUITY: JAPAN SEMICONDUCTOR PRODUCTION EQUIPMENT

RatingNear-term share price reflects weak Q2 earnings Remains Neutral

Target price

Reduced from 2,800 JPY 2,300We lower target price to ¥2,300, remain Neutral

Closing price JPY 2,266We remain Neutral, expect share price to remain weak until Q2 results are released 17 July 2026

We retain our earnings forecasts for Rigaku Holdings, lower our target price, and retain

Implied upside +1.5%our Neutral rating. Share price performance at semiconductor-related companies has

been weak since end-June, but Rigaku Holdings’ share price started correcting even

earlier, falling 33% from its year-to-date high of ¥3,400 on 3 June to ¥2,266 on 17 July. It

said when it released 26/12 Q1 results in May that it expected Q2 profits to fall or at best

Relative performance chartcome in flat versus their prior-year level of ¥2.88bn owing to reseller commissions and

R&D costs rising to a normal level. Accordingly, we expect the share price to remain soft

at its current level at least until after the release of Q2 results on 7 August.

We obtain our target price of ¥2,300 using a fair-value P/E of 33.3x

We lower our target price from ¥2,800 (based on a fair-value P/E of 40.5x) to ¥2,300

(based on a fair-value of 33.3x). We still use 27/12 as the base year. The average P/E for

10 semiconductor-related companies has fallen from 32.4x at the time of our previous

calculation to 30.3x. We also reduce the premium we apply from 25% to 10%. While we

still see upside potential in terms of scope for business expansion with Onto Innovation

[ONTO US], we reflect the decline in stock market expectations for semiconductor-related

companies.