1Q operating performance beats estimates: Estimate 32% EBITDA CAGR over FY26-29F; maintain Buy with a higher TP of INR392

Research evidence excerpt

1Q operating performance beats estimates: Estimate 32% EBITDA CAGR over FY26-29F; maintain Buy with a higher TP of INR392

with only 2-2.5MT coming from Fujairah

(due to operational disruptions). It maintained its FY27E/28E overall EBITDA guidance of

INR30bn/50bn, implying a 39% EBITDA CAGR over FY26-28F, driven by a 1.6x expansion in port

capacity from 186MT in 1QFY27 to 300MT in FY28E, and ramp-up in rail rake fleet to 250 rakes in Source: LSEG, Nomura

2-3 years. Management also expects the upcoming Keni/Murbe ports to boost its third-party cargo

as they provide extensive access to key industrial clusters and hinterlands. However, timely Research Analysts

completion of projects will be a key monitorable. While Keni’s commissioning was deferred to

India Transport/LogisticsFY30E from FY29E, other projects are largely on track. Slurry pipeline completion is at 83%

Umesh Raut - NFASL(+500bp q-q), Murbe has received EC and DFC approvals, and the Oman port project is on course

umesh.raut@nomura.com

due to its strategically important location outside the Strait of Hormuz, as per management. +91 22 403 74035

Trades at 19x FY28F EBITDA; maintain Buy with a higher TP of INR392 Aritra Banerjee - NFASL

We raise our FY27F/FY28F EBITDA estimates by 1% as we factor in slightly higher margins for the aritra.banerjee@nomura.com

ports segment due to a more favourable mix. Notably, our FY28F EBITDA is still 5% below +91 22 672 34609

management guidance as we await further clarity on timely project commissioning. We introduce

FY29 estimates and roll forward our valuation to Sep-28F earnings. We value the stock at 18x

(unchanged) Sep-28F EBITDA; maintain Buy with a higher TP of INR392 (previously INR350).

Year-end 31 Mar FY26 FY27F FY28F FY29F

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