US Daily Commentary

Research evidence excerpt

US Daily Commentary

Global Markets Research

21 July 2026US Daily Commentary

Economics - North America

Research Analysts

Review & Preview North America Economics

Review Aichi Amemiya - NSI aichi.amemiya@nomura.com

PhillyFedNonmanufacturingsurvey: The Philly Fed nonmanufacturing activity index +1 212 667 9347

rose to 7.4 in July from -25.8 in June, its highest reading since May 2022. New orders, Jeremy Schwartz - NSI

sales, and unfilled orders rose in the month. Firms reported an increase in headcount as jeremy.schwartz@nomura.com

full-time employment, part-time employment, and the average workweek moved higher ( +1 212 667 9637

Fig.1). Capex plans also improved, with the index for equipment and software capex Ruchir Sharma - NSI

rising to a four-year-high. Firms also remained optimistic about activity in the coming ruchir.sharma@nomura.com

months. +1 212 667 9186

ADPprivateemployment: ADP data suggest private payrolls rose an average 16.5k per

week in the four-week period ending 4 July from 19.75k previously. Data suggest that

employment gains have remained robust, but eased from their May peak (Fig.2).

Tariffupdate: The Trump administration announced 50% Section 338 tariffs on a broad

range of Canadian imports (including alcohol, autos, dairy products, etc.) effective 19

August. Section 338 overlaps with Section 301 as both authorities allow the US to impose

tariffs in response to discriminatory or unfair trade practices by foreign countries. However,

unlike Section 301, Section 338 does not require any formal investigation before imposing

tariffs. Tariffs under Section 338 may not exceed 50%. Section 338 tariffs should be used

to "offset" burdens or disadvantages to US businesses, which could limit the scope of

Section 338 tariffs to specific goods/industries.