SCG Packaging: Upgrade to Buy as valuation turns attractive

Research evidence excerpt

SCG Packaging: Upgrade to Buy as valuation turns attractive

Global Markets Research

SCG Packaging SCGP.BK SCGP TB 22 July 2026

EQUITY: MATERIALS

RatingUpgrade to Buy as valuation turns attractive Up from Neutral Buy

Target priceWe switch our valuation methodology to better capture Increased from THB 35.23Fajar’s earnings turnaround story and improved margins THB 21.00

1HFY26 and 2QFY26 earnings review; a beat on consensus estimates on the back Closing21 July 2026price THB 30.25

Indonesia turnaround

SCGP reported 2QFY26 core PATAMI of THB2,335mn, surging 51% q-q and 135% y-y, driven Implied upside +16.5%by the successful turnaround of the Indonesia operations of Fajar (FASW IJ, Not rated) which

swung to a quarterly profit of IDR107bn (approximately THB200mn) in 2QFY26, compared to Market Cap (USD mn) 3,862.6

losses in prior periods, alongside sustained momentum in Vietnam. Operationally, 2QFY26 ADT (USD mn) 11.7

EBITDA of THB5,735mn expanded 27% q-q and 39% y-y, with margin improving to 17.7%

(+2.2pp q-q, +4.6pp y-y), reflecting disciplined cost management and pricing alignment with Relative performance chart

regional benchmarks, particularly in Indonesia, where selling prices improved from the

IDR5,800/kg bottom in 4Q25 towards regional parity. Revenue of THB32,454mn grew 11% q-q

and 3% y-y, supported by post-holiday restocking in Indonesia and Vietnam, stronger domestic

consumption across ASEAN, and volume growth in consumer packaging segments. In

1HFY26, core PATAMI of THB3,877mn improved 103% y-y, representing 73% of our prior

FY26F estimates (which we deem a beat) and at 63% of Bloomberg consensus' estimates.

Upgrade to Buy with new TP of THB35.23 (16.5% upside)

We upgrade SCGP to Buy (from Neutral) with a revised target price of THB35.23 (from