Argentina: Exports power a growing trade surplus

Research evidence excerpt

Argentina: Exports power a growing trade surplus

J P M O R G A N Latin America Economic Research

21 July 2026

Argentina

Exports power a growing trade surplus

Economic and Policy Research

Diego W. Pereira

(1-212) 834-4321

diego.w.pereira@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

With broad-based gains across key sectors and a gradual shift toward greater Lucila Barbeito

(54-11) 4348-7229

economic openness, Argentina’s trade balance is becoming an increasingly lucila.barbeito@jpmorgan.com

important pillar of growth. The goods trade account posted its 31st consecutive JPMorgan Chase Bank Sucursal Buenos Aires

monthly surplus in June, underscoring the economy’s strengthening external

position. Total trade turnover (exports plus imports) reached US$16bn, up

16.4%oya and the highest monthly reading since August 2022. The trade surplus

widened to US$2.2bn from US$0.9bn a year earlier, reflecting a favorable mix of

firmer export prices and still-subdued import volumes.

The improvement has been broad-based. The energy balance contributed US

$2.3bn to the YTD increase in the surplus, while the non-energy balance improved

by US$8.9bn. The latter was driven primarily by stronger agro-related exports (US

$4.5bn) and mining exports (US$2.2bn), alongside lower imports (Table 1).

On a seasonally adjusted basis, however, the picture is somewhat more nuanced.

Exports eased modestly from the record levels reached in May, declining 0.9%m/

m,sa. Imports, by contrast, rose 3.4%m/m,sa, consistent with a gradual, albeit

uneven, recovery in import demand as domestic activity regains momentum. As a

result, the three-month annualized trade surplus narrowed somewhat, though it

remained exceptionally strong at US$31.6bn. Meanwhile, the 12-month