ArcelorMittal: Upgrading to Overweight on Relative Value as EU Macro Fundamentals Improve

Research evidence excerpt

ArcelorMittal: Upgrading to Overweight on Relative Value as EU Macro Fundamentals Improve

J P M O R G A N North America Credit Research

21 July 2026

▲Overweight

ArcelorMittal Previous: Neutral

MTNA

Upgrading to Overweight on Relative Value as EU Moody's: Baa2 Outlook: STABLE

Macro Fundamentals Improve S&P: BBB Outlook: STABLE

Fitch: BBB- Outlook: STABLE

The above agency ratings are at the corporate level

North America Corporate Credit –

Basics (IG), Metals & Mining,

Building and Paper & Packaging

(HY)

We are upgrading ArcelorMittal (MTNA) to Overweight from Neutral. As of Arjun Chandar AC

the beginning of July, the EU steel index increased 10% on protectionist measures (1-212) 834-4047

arjun.c.chandar@jpmorgan.com

in Europe and US steel prices remain elevated on tariff benefits. We believe macro J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

developments will provide a boost to fundamental performance in the second half

of the year and drive de-levering after steel price headwinds more meaningfully

impacted the balance sheet in FY25. As a mid-BBB credit, we also believe that

MTNA trades too wide to a compressed peer set, and we like the potential for new

10y bonds to compress against diversified mining and mini-mill comps in the HG

Metals/Mining space. We note the company continues to maintain balance sheet

conservatism and has been allocating capital prudently since its upgrade to IG in

2021, a trend we expect to continue in a favorable pricing environment. We expect

MTNA to preserve mid-BBB ratings and note that 10y spreads are still ~15bp wide

to the JULI Metals/Mining Index, offering compression upside, in our view. We

would highlight that our Equity team turned more constructive on EU steel earlier

this month (link) as well. Risks to the rating: steel price volatility, global demand,