Rumo: Mato Grosso Harvest Tracker (Jul. 21): Fertilizer Prices Down W/W, Yet Production Costs Remain Elevated; Rumo’s South Network Public Hearing

Research evidence excerpt

Rumo: Mato Grosso Harvest Tracker (Jul. 21): Fertilizer Prices Down W/W, Yet Production Costs Remain Elevated; Rumo’s South Network Public Hearing

J P M O R G A N Latin America Equity Research

21 July 2026

Rumo

Mato Grosso Harvest Tracker (Jul. 21): Fertilizer Prices Neutral

Down W/W, Yet Production Costs Remain Elevated; RAIL3.SA, RAIL3 BZ

Rumo’s South Network Public Hearing Price (20 Jul 26):R$13.57

Latin American Transportation

The Mato Grosso Agribusiness Institute (IMEA) has released its weekly report, Guilherme Mendes AC

providing updates on the progress of the soybean and corn harvests, as well as truck (55-11) 4950-4105

spot freight prices. This note also includes recent relevant news related to Rumo. guilherme.g.mendes@jpmorgan.com

Julia Orsi

• IMEA: Corn. For the 2025/26 season, IMEA maintained its production (55-11) 4950 3351

estimates for Mato Grosso at 57.1 million tons (+2% y/y). The latest data show julia.orsi@jpmorgan.com

that corn commercialization for the season reached 51.7% (+7.2 p.p. m/m and Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

+1.9 p.p. y/y). MT's 2026/27 corn fertilizer costs fell 2.4% m/m in June

estimated at R$ 1,532.7/ha, as the normalization of logistics in the Middle East

in June allowed exports to resume and improved negotiating conditions.

However, the delay in purchasing inputs may concentrate demand in the

coming months and drive prices up. For 2026 IMEA estimates the corn gross

production value at R$42.3 billion (+7.9% y/y) supported by expanded area,

favorable climate conditions across most producing regions, and prices

remaining above prior season levels despite elevated supply - corn accounts for

26% of total agribusiness gross production value in Mato Grosso. Corn prices

rose with Chicago up 1% w/w to US$4.41/bu on stronger international demand