Novartis: Q2 call - no incremental change in messaging on H2 pipeline readouts

Research evidence excerpt

Novartis: Q2 call - no incremental change in messaging on H2 pipeline readouts

Marjan Daeipour - Specialist Sales - European Healthcare AC (44 20) 7134-1329 Europe Specialist Sales J P M O R G A Nmarjan.daeipour@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc 21 July 2026

Novartis: Q2 call - no incremental change in messaging on H2 pipeline

readouts

Marjan Daeipour

+44 207 134 1329

marjan.daeipour@jpmorgan.com

Shares are up c. 2.9% on the Q2 beat, which implies c. 2% upside to cons FY26 core EPS. The feedback is mainly from

bears, who are short into H2 read outs and of the view that the beat was mostly driven by one-time (i.e. low quality)

effects, including stocking ahead of SAP implementation, which contributed 1pp to Q2 revenue growth, combined with

lower opex on R&D phasing, which contributed c. 5pp to Q2 core operating profit. In our view, stripping out these one-

offs, Q2 would still have beaten expectations on both metrics.

More importantly, the focus remains on H2 pipeline readouts and on those, the incremental messaging remains unchanged

relative to the recent broker conference season. Mgmt are hopeful that for Pelacarsen, efficacy can be in the 13-15% or

better range and see c. 15% as clinically meaningful. In Remi, the focus remains on ARR (annualised relapse rate, the

primary endpoint) and disability progression, a secondary endpoint.

On Del-desiran, the focus is on hand video opening times (primary endpoint in the HARBOR pIII trial) as well as

secondary endpoints.

Pipeline timing: Pelacarsen is expected over the summer (we think could be August), Remi RRMS Q3 (we think late Sept)

and del-desiran around Q4 (we think Sept/October).

Main points:

Q2 one-offs: 1pp contribution to revenue growth across the portfolio due to stocking around SAP implementation (we believe