Capital One JPM 2Q26 Earnings Scorecard – Preview

Research evidence excerpt

Capital One JPM 2Q26 Earnings Scorecard – Preview

ain watchful for policy developments and market volatility that could impact

the NIM outlook. JPMe 2Q26 NIM is 8.22% vs. consensus 8.05%.

• Auto: COF is growing originations again given improving competitive dynamics.

Loan growth could slow if affordability deteriorates further, as the JPM U.S. Autos

team expects full-year 2026 SAAR to decline to the mid-15 million range on higher

prices, elevated monthly payments, and stretched affordability, pressures now

compounded by renewed tariff headlines following the U.S. decision not to renew the

USMCA and by a rates backdrop skewed higher. That said, we expect any origination

headwinds to be offset by extended duration on existing loans and lower loss

severities from higher collateral values, as elevated used vehicle prices continue to

support recovery values even as they weigh on affordability.

• Capital Return: The Board of Directors approved a $16B share repurchase

authorization and increased the quarterly dividend to $0.80/share (from $0.60/share).

In 1Q26, COF repurchased $2.5B of shares, flat sequentially, reflecting

management's confidence in the company's capital position and earnings outlook.

Mgmt. reiterated that earnings power on the other side of the Discover integration

remains consistent with deal announcement expectations, inclusive of Brex and

Hopper, defined as ROTCE at a constant CET1 level of 12.5%, and noted the

guidance would still hold at somewhat higher capital levels. Mgmt. expects share

repurchases to continue at an elevated pace.

Intra-Quarter Commentary:

• COF was present at an industry conference in June (6/9/26).

• Discover integration on track, $2.5B synergy target unchanged; revenue synergies