Genesis Minerals: $5.6bn consideration for Vault is fair and accretive in FY28E/29E, but dilutive from FY30E; integrate VAU into our base case and retain OW

Research evidence excerpt

Genesis Minerals: $5.6bn consideration for Vault is fair and accretive in FY28E/29E, but dilutive from FY30E; integrate VAU into our base case and retain OW

Jonathon Sharp AC Asia Pacific Equity Research

(61 2) 9003-8312 21 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

jonathon.sharp@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

Genesis Minerals is an Australian gold mining and development

company focused on the Leonora District in Western Australia.

The company has two distinct mining hubs located at Leonora

and Laverton. Genesis employs both open pit and underground

mining methods, with notable projects including the Gwalia

underground mine, Admiral open pit, Hub open pit, and Ulysses

underground mine. Genesis Minerals’ ASPIRE 500 strategy

aims to increase annual gold production to 500koz pa through

strategic development and acquisitions, optimizing existing

YTD 1m 3m 12m operations, and enhancing operational efficiencies. We are

Abs -23.9% -7.4% -18.1% 40.5% Overweight on GMD, based on valuation.

Rel -31.2% 0.6% -10.7% 8.3%

Valuation

Company Data

Our Jun-27 price target is based on our DCF valuation, rounded

Shares O/S (mn) 1,142

52-week range (A$) 8.42-3.54 to the nearest 10cps. We use a WACC of 7.5%.

Market cap ($ mn) 4,604.16

Exchange rate 1.43

Free float (%) 95.7% Performance Drivers

3M ADV (mn) 6.68

3M ADV ($ mn) 27.3

Volatility (90 Day) 74

Index AS51 Mining

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 13|0|0

Key Metrics (FYE Jun)

A$ in millions FY25A FY26E FY27E FY28E

Financial Estimates

Revenue 920 1,716 3,040 4,584

EBITDA 455 942 1,712 2,769

Adj. EBITDA 455 942 1,712 2,769

Adj. EBIT 317 786 1,438 2,402

Adj. net income 222 547 996 1,680

Net income 221 547 996 1,680

Adj. EPS 0.20 0.47 0.50 0.84

BBG EPS 0.19 0.50 0.60 0.75