JPM TECH SKETCH: US Telecom Q2 Previews (re: SPCX, TMUS, CMCSA), META-Anthropic Deal?, US Entertainment Q2 Previews (re: LYV, TKO, SPHR, FWONK)

Research evidence excerpt

JPM TECH SKETCH: US Telecom Q2 Previews (re: SPCX, TMUS, CMCSA), META-Anthropic Deal?, US Entertainment Q2 Previews (re: LYV, TKO, SPHR, FWONK)

idential broadband to 8% (from 3%) while cable's share falls to 44% (from

57%).”

Sebastiano also wrote a great piece over the weekend titled SPCX/CMCSA/TMUS/T/VZ Addressing Key Telecom Debates:

“Viewing a near-term U.S. MVNO as unlikely, we see Starlink Mobile as more of a lingering overhang on U.S. wireless than a

near-term fundamental threat, with limited expected pressure on the roughly $240b U.S. mobile service revenue ecosystem over

our forecast horizon. We model SpaceX beginning its U.S. terrestrial build in 2028 and launching a U.S. direct-to-consumer

service in 2029. Our U.S. DTC forecast ramps to 2m subscribers in 2029, 4m in 2030, and 5m by year-end 2031; in 2030, that

represents just ~1% of total U.S. phone subscribers and $1.4b of service revenue, or only ~0.5% of industry service revenue.

Structurally, direct-to-device connectivity cannot replicate the in-building penetration or capacity of terrestrial networks, handset

compatibility remains limited, and Starlink Mobile’s value proposition versus incumbents remains unclear. We expect pricing on

par with cable MVNOs rather than at a steep discount; those offers launched in 2017 and scaled to more than 21m subscribers

with only minimal impact on incumbents’ profit pools. With U.S. “dysconnectivity” not severe enough to drive large-scale

demand for a satellite-supplemented service, we view Starlink Mobile as a supplement to existing coverage rather than a

competitive substitute. Net-net, the bigger near-term impact is likely sentiment rather than fundamentals.”

You can also check out Sebastiano’s Telecom Services Q226 Earnings Preview Slide Deck: