GPC, HAS, Lodging Preview, DPZ, DRI, Nielsen (WMT, ULTA, BJ)

Research evidence excerpt

GPC, HAS, Lodging Preview, DPZ, DRI, Nielsen (WMT, ULTA, BJ)

Briggs Barton - Specialist Sales - US Consumer AC North America Specialist Sales J P M O R G A Nbriggs.barton@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC 21 July 2026

2Q laterals continue to support ULTA’s industry-driven May slowdown commentary. Indeed, looking laterally across 1Y and

2Y trends vs. what Nielsen and Circana data exhibited last quarter, our assessment of the data indicates a wide range of flat to

+3% comp through July 11th with both Nielsen and Circana data (the latter includes AMZN) centered around +2-3% within that

range. This compares to flat to +4% range ended 6/27, with the sequential slowdown vs. prior 2QTD update driven across most

categories. While the slowdown across categories relative to 1Q was also broad-based, the biggest culprits were Cosmetics

(growth rate down ~3 pts sequentially) and Fragrance (which decelerated more sharply, especially in Circana). Cosmetics is

typically one of the stronger correlation factors between these laterals (Figures 4-5). Lastly, as a reminder, our Nielsen data only

includes food, drug, and mass, while Circana includes this plus AMZN and ULTA, but we cannot isolate individual retailers.

As a reminder, ULTA pointed investors to hold the 2Y +HSD stack, with the straight math pointing to +0.3-2.3% in 2Q,

which compares with +1.2%e and +2.3% per Consensus Metrix. We note that May is one of ULTA’s toughest monthly

comparisons of the year (+7%e vs. 5%e in June and 7%e in July). Investors are focused on gross margin risk around promotions,

which is a valid concern. That said, the bear narrative on share headwinds is clearly undermined by these laterals that show an

industry-wide deceleration.

WMT/BJ